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 716 
 WTNT44 KNHC 072032
 TCDAT4
 
 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
 
 Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective
 band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB
 provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier
 ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is
 used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone.
 Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during
 the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since
 Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded
 within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so.  Debby is
 forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355
 degrees at 13 kt.  The subtropical storm should continue on this
 general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24
 hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,
 which will eventually absorb Debby.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/2100Z 39.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 41.0N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 42.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 44.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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