730 
 WTNT44 KNHC 260300
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
  
 AFTER AN INTENSE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE
 CLOUD SHIELD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR. THE HIGHEST RELIABLE SFMR WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 42 KT TO THE WEST AND
 WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH 59-KT AND 56-KT
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE TALLAHASSEE DOPPLER
 WEATHER RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING LARGE WINDS OF 60-65 VELOCITIES
 BETWEEN 2000 AND 6500 FT IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION...THOSE
 CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OVER LAND. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.
 
 THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR 040/02 KT
 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 18Z AND 00Z INDICATE 
 DEBBY REMAINS TRAPPED IN A BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN THAT EXTENDS
 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
 AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
 DEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT LESS THAN 5 KT
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...DEBBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS
 BEFORE IT CREEPS SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA IN DAYS 3-4. IN THE
 ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE STEERING FLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
 DEBBY WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH
 SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH
 DAY 3...AND IS THEN A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE
 TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND
 SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD
 INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE DEBBY REMAINS OVER WATER.
 THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...BUT
 DEBBY WILL BE OVER OR INTERACTING WITH LAND AT DAYS 3 AND 4...SO
 THAT WILL PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
 IMPROVING SHEAR CONDITIONS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...DEBBY IS EXPECTED
 TO BE MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM...WHICH MAY
 ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER HAVING WEAKENED
 OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0300Z 29.2N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 29.3N  84.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 29.4N  84.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 29.5N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 29.6N  83.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 29.8N  82.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  30/0000Z 30.1N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 120H  01/0000Z 30.8N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART