465 
 WTNT44 KNHC 250838
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
 400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
  
 DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
 THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
 CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
 AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
 ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
 WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
 DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
 CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
 TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
 LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE
 HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
  
 BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN
 A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
 ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
 FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
 TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
 MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE
 LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
 A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 
 THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
 GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
 OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0900Z 28.6N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  25/1800Z 28.8N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  26/0600Z 28.9N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  26/1800Z 29.0N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  27/0600Z 29.2N  85.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  28/0600Z 29.4N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  29/0600Z 29.7N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 120H  30/0600Z 30.2N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH