887 
 WTNT44 KNHC 261437
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
 PERSISTING APPROXIMATELY 150 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED
 CIRCULATION CENTER...A PRODUCT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. 
 DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT...WITH
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
 FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A
 SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY WILL THEN ULTIMATELY
 BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   
  
 DEBBY IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/7.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE
 UKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT DEBBY WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
 BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 
 THE UKMET INDICATES A INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS AN
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FRONT.  ON THE
 OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND ECMWF REVEAL A MORE RAPID ABSORPTION
 PHASE...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE.  DEBBY SHOULD
 BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN
 TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS DEBBY COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 25.6N  47.3W    25 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.7N  48.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 29.5N  49.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN