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 359 
 WTNT44 KNHC 252057
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
  
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS
 AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE
 CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE
 FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND A NOAA
 P-3 FLYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT REPORTED A SURFACE WIND
 OF 35 KT WITHIN THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE
 REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL HOLD AT 35 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH MAINTAINS 35 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DEBBY
 INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. DEBBY IS EXPECTED
 TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3...THEN ULTIMATELY
 BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/15.  DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
 THAT DEBBY WILL MOVE BENEATH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...
 FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
 REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND
 IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/2100Z 24.9N  44.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  46.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.2N  48.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.3N  49.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     27/1800Z 32.7N  48.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     28/1800Z 39.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     29/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
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