729
WTNT44 KNHC 251448
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING
THE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25
AND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37
KT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40
KT VECTORS. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE
SHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES.
THE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND
DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.9N 43.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 25.3N 45.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 27.2N 47.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 49.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.2N 49.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 47.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1200Z 48.0N 34.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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