729 
 WTNT44 KNHC 251448
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
  
 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO
 STRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING
 THE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP
 CONVECTION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25
 AND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37
 KT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40
 KT VECTORS.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
 35 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE
 SHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2
 TO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE
 APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
 TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES. 
 THE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL
 LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4
 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
 AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
 GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BEYOND
 DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/1500Z 23.9N  43.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.3N  45.3W    35 KT
  24HR VT     26/1200Z 27.2N  47.6W    35 KT
  36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  49.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     27/1200Z 31.2N  49.6W    45 KT
  72HR VT     28/1200Z 36.0N  47.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     29/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     30/1200Z 48.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN