494 
 WTNT44 KNHC 250835
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
  
 THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL
 REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
 PAST FEW HOURS. A TRIMM PASS OVER DEBBY SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE IS
 NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND THE LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS ARE A
 LITTLE BIT DISPLACED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
 SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 45 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON
 QUIKSCAT...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST A WEAKER SYSTEM. DEBBY IS
 ABOUT TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND THAT COULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO
 STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE
 SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS THAT MAKE DEBBY A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM AFTER
 RECURVATURE.
 
 DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS AROUND
 THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
 REACH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND RECURVATURE
 SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD
 MOVE 
 TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
 BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL LOW. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN
 FACT...CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THIS INCREASES THE
 CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 22.9N  42.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.1N  44.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.8N  47.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  49.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N  50.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  50.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     29/0600Z 39.0N  43.0W    55 KT...BECOMING-EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     30/0600Z 45.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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