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 596 
 WTNT44 KNHC 240830
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
 500 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
 CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF
 THE STORM WITH A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN FORMING.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 40 KT IN BETWEEN
 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KT.  A GRADUAL
 STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SSTS AND
 FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...
 SSTS RISE A BIT FASTER BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY
 SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEYOND TWO
 DAYS... AS SHIPS NEVER MAKES DEBBY A HURRICANE WHILE THE GFDL
 INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY THREE. 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.    
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME...300/17.  THIS
 GENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
 IN BETWEEN A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
 A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.  BEYOND 24-36
 HOURS... A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS NEAR 55W.  THIS
 BREAK SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE
 NORTHWEST THEN NORTH... THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST TO TAKE
 DEBBY NORTHWARD.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MODEL.... SHOOTING THE
 STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES NORTH OF 40N IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE
 NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER... SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND KEEPING
 DEBBY SOUTH OF 32N THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
 A LITTLE FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS SUIT... A BIT SOUTH OF THE GUNS CONSENSUS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0900Z 19.6N  36.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.6N  38.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.8N  41.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N  44.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N  47.0W    55 KT
  72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  50.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     28/0600Z 30.5N  51.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     29/0600Z 34.5N  49.5W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
 
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