938 
 WTNT44 KNHC 231442
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006
  
 DEBBY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THIS MORNING'S
 QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 45 KT VECTOR.  THE
 SYSTEM ALSO SHOWED VERY GOOD ORGANIZATION ON AN 11Z MICROWAVE PASS. 
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT YET REFLECT THAT LEVEL OF
 ORGANIZATION...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45
 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER LIGHT
 EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
 SUPPORT ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
 DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.  GLOBAL
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE
 IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD SLOW THE
 INTENSIFICATION.  NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 CONTINUES TO INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO NEAR HURRICANE
 STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BETWEEN
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES.
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC SYNOPTIC THINKING. A
 SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT
 THE NOGAPS BEGIN A RECURVATURE BY DAY 5...AND THE NOGAPS DOES SO
 SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME...BUT I NOTE THAT MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE SHOWS A HARDER RIGHT TURN BY DAY 5 THAN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST DOES. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 16.8N  31.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 17.8N  33.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N  36.5W    55 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.3N  39.3W    55 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.6N  42.2W    55 KT
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  47.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N  51.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 30.5N  53.0W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN