543 
 WTNT44 KNHC 201447
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
  
 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
 MEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
 BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
 IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
 BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
 IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
 THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
 CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
 YUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING
 AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST
 OF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS
 FINAL LANDFALL.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
 TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL
 FORECAST.  DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND
 WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 WESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
 CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/1500Z 17.9N  82.4W   130 KT
  12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.2N  85.1W   140 KT
  24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N  88.6W   100 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.9N  92.2W    80 KT
  48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    95 KT
  72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W    35 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN