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 366 
 WTNT44 KNHC 190847
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
 
 THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BY THE AIR FORCE
 HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS AT 0511 UTC.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
 PRESSURE OF 921 MB BY DROPSONDE AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 130
 KT OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
 LESS DISTINCT EYE WITH SOME WARMING OF THE SURROUNDING CLOUD
 TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD
 SYMMETRY AND STRONG OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY
 BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED...THIS 
 IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES...AND IS PROBABLY ONLY
 A SHORT-TERM CHANGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
 ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...
 SO....ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS...DEAN HAS THE
 POTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
 NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...
 SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE GUIDANCE.  INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA WILL CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE AMOUNT OF RE-STRENGTHENING
 OF DEAN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEPENDS MAINLY ON HOW
 LONG THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL.
 
 ASIDE FROM THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES THAT ARE COMMON WITH SUCH INTENSE
 HURRICANES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
 OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.  AS
 THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
 CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
 HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
 SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
 STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ANY
 CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
 48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE CONSIDERED COSMETIC.  WE HAVE SHIFTED THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF
 THE PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...U.K. MET.
 AND ECMWF MODELS.  
 
 IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. 
 CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF
 THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF
 THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
 ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A
 POSITION AND INTENSITY FIX ON DEAN AROUND 1200 UTC.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0900Z 16.6N  73.4W   125 KT
  12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.1N  76.0W   130 KT
  24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.9N  79.5W   130 KT
  36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.7N  83.0W   135 KT
  48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N  86.6W   140 KT
  72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N  93.5W    85 KT
  96HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N  99.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
  
 
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