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 323 
 WTNT44 KNHC 190259
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
  
 THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES.  RADAR
 IMAGERY ONBOARD THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPICTS
 CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AT RADII OF ABOUT 10 AND 20 N MI...WITH THE
 OUTER EYEWALL RECENTLY BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. 
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO REVEALED DOUBLE MAXIMA.  WIND DATA AT
 FLIGHT LEVEL...FROM THE SFMR...AND FROM DROPSONDES DIRECTLY SUPPORT
 AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 115 KT.  THE CENTRAL
 PRESSURE...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WAS MOST
 RECENTLY MEASURED AT 918 MB.  ASSUMING THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS
 NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...BUT
 THIS COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.  THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE
 TO INVESTIGATE DEAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE IF THE WINDS COME
 BACK UP.
 
 DEAN WOBBLED WESTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LONGER-TERM
 MOTION TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. AS
 THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
 WAS EAST OF FLORIDA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADED QUICKLY WESTWARD. THAT LOW IS FORECAST TO
 BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
 UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
 REINFORCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF DEAN...THROUGH THE
 NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER SOME PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS HAVE
 IN GENERAL SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH IS
 NO LONGER THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
 PERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A TAD TO THE SOUTH AND IS
 VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
 DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE...BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW AND
 THE INNER CORE COULD QUICKLY REORGANIZE AT ANY TIME...SO ANY DIP IN
 THE INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED.  THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN
 THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ATMOSPHERIC AND
 OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
 INTENSITY AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  SINCE THE
 NEW TRACK FORECAST RESULTS IN A LONGER STAY OVER THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED
 SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL INDICATES
 A MAJOR HURRICANE AT FINAL LANDFALL.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0300Z 16.2N  71.7W   125 KT
  12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.8N  74.3W   130 KT
  24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.6N  77.8W   130 KT
  36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.4N  81.4W   135 KT
  48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N  85.1W   140 KT
  72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  92.0W    85 KT
  96HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N  98.0W   100 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
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