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 942 
 WTNT24 KNHC 181447
 TCMAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007
  
 AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
 HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
 HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
 SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
 REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
 THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
 THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND
 FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN
 HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.   A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
 THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
 ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
 MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
 AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
 PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.  A
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
 VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
 DISCONTINUED.
  
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
 WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
 MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
  
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
 PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  68.6W AT 18/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  929 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
 64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 50 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
 12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE  75SW 375NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  68.6W AT 18/1500Z
 AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  67.9W
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N  71.0W
 MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N  74.3W
 MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N  77.8W...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N  81.4W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N  88.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
 34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  68.6W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 
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