428
WTPA43 PHFO 252101
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
1100 AM HST MON JUL 25 2016
The low level center of Darby appeared to be trackable from
satellite, surface observations on Kauai, and helpful reports from
the NOAA ship Hiialakai overnight. Visible imagery this morning
shows Darby as a low level swirl west of Niihau and becoming
increasingly seperated from deep convection well north of Oahu. The
satellite-based current intensity estimates were 2.0 from CPHC and
JTWC, and 1.5 from SAB. There were some believable 30 kt winds
northeast of the center from the 16 UTC RapidScat pass, so the
intensity for this advisory will be maintained at 30 kt.
Shear has taken its toll on Darby and it seems quite unlikely that
the system will be able to recover. The remnant circulation will be
steered in part by the low level easterlies. Have adjusted the
forecast slightly to the left of the previous official forecast to
account for this as well as recent motion, which has been somewhat
erratic. Darby is expected to be a post-tropical remnant low within
12 hours, followed by dissipation by Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 22.2N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.6N 162.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 23.5N 163.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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