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 905 
 WTPA43 PHFO 251446
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
 500 AM HST MON JUL 25 2016
  
 Areas of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms continue to develop to
 the north through east of Darby's poorly-defined center as it
 interacts with a sharp trough aloft, and the system is in the
 process of losing tropical characteristics.  The center passed very
 close to the island of Kauai overnight, but appeared to remain
 offshore before taking a turn toward the west-northwest.  Subjective
 Dvorak intensity estimates for this forecast cycle ranged from
 1.5/25 kt from SAB, to 2.0/30 kt from HFO, to 2.5/35 kt from GTW. 
 Based on a blend of those estimates, the initial intensity for
 this advisory is 30 kt. 
  
 The initial motion vector is estimated to be 280/10 kt, as an
 increasingly shallow and poorly-defined Darby is now being steered
 by the low-level trade wind flow.  Strong southwesterly shear will
 preclude re-organization, and Darby is expected to move toward the
 west-northwest, then northwest, toward a weakness in the low-level
 ridge to its north.  On this track, water temperatures will
 gradually cool, and Darby is expected to soon become a post-tropical
 remnant low, with dissipation expected shortly thereafter, close to
 the LGEM intensity guidance.  The updated forecast track was shifted 
 to the left of the previous to account for the current motion, and 
 lies close to the EMXI. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 22.4N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 23.1N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 24.2N 163.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  27/0000Z 25.5N 165.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
 
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