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 546 
 WTPA43 PHFO 250842
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
 1100 PM HST SUN JUL 24 2016
  
 Bands of heavy rain with embedded strong thunderstorms have been
 developing to the north through southeast of Darby's center
 over the past several hours, with some of these bands causing
 significant flooding impacts over the island of Oahu.  The
 subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW all indicated
 a current intensity of 2.0/30 kt.  However, the current intensity
 will be maintained at 35 kt for this advisory due to the strong
 thunderstorms leading to tropical storm conditions over areas to the
 north through southeast of the center. 
 
 The initial motion vector for this advisory 325/10 kt, with Darby
 becoming increasingly shallow as it is embedded in an environment 
 characterized by strong southwesterly shear.  Although SHIPS
 guidance reduces the shear on days 2 and 3, Darby is not expected to
 survive the trek over increasingly cooler waters, and degeneration
 to a post-tropical low is expected relatively soon.  Global models
 indicate Darby will track toward the northwest before weakening to a
 trough by day 3, and the official forecast follows closely.  The
 updated track forecast follows the trajectory of the previous
 closely, except for a slight westward shift in order to come in line
 with the latest GFEX guidance. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0900Z 22.4N 159.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  25/1800Z 23.3N 160.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  26/0600Z 24.4N 161.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  26/1800Z 25.6N 163.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/0600Z 27.1N 164.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
 
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