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 631 
 WTPA43 PHFO 250241
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
 500 PM HST SUN JUL 24 2016
 
 Earlier thunderstorms southeast of Darby's centered dissipated
 but vigorous thunderstorms just northeast of the center flared up
 this afternoon with tops colder than -65C. The morning Hurricane
 Hunter mission into Darby continued through mid-day with a maximum
 surface wind of 37 kt found over the water east of the center.
 Based on the aircraft recon data and the recent burst in deep
 convection very close to Oahu and Kauai, Darby has been held at 35
 kt for this advisory package. This could be generous, especially
 considering that subjective Dvorak estimates all came in at 30 kt
 and that no surface stations on Kauai and Oahu have reported
 tropical storm force conditions thus far. Note that this was the
 final mission into Darby. A big mahalo to the 53rd Weather
 Reconnaissance Squadron for their outstanding support over the past
 several days.
  
 Darby is moving at 325/10 kt to the southwest of a lower and
 middle-level pressure ridge. The main dynamical objective aids
 remain tightly clustered and continue to indicate that Darby will
 move northwestward over or near Kauai tonight, and continue toward
 the northwest over the next 2 to 3 days while weakening to a
 post-tropical remnant low. The forecast track for this package
 remains close to the previous track and the dynamical consensus.
  
 Current marginal sea surface temperatures will cool along the
 forecast track and vertical shear, while forecast to be less
 persistent than the previous cycle, should remain relatively strong
 over the next day or so. As a result, the current forecast calls for
 Darby to weaken to a tropical depression overnight, then become a
 post-tropical remnant low in 48 hours. This is a faster weakening
 than indicated by the intensity consensus. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/0300Z 21.7N 158.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 22.7N 160.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 23.8N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 25.0N 163.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  27/0000Z 26.4N 164.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  28/0000Z 29.9N 166.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Kodama
 
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