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 660 
 WTPA43 PHFO 242054
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
 1100 AM HST SUN JUL 24 2016
 
 Due to vertical shear affecting Darby, most of the deep convection
 is mainly confined to the southeast quadrant with some isolated
 thunderstorms to the northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. The
 morning mission from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron's
 WC-130J found the center of Darby to be a bit north of the previous
 forecast track with maximum winds of 36 kt to the east of the
 center. Based on the aircraft recon data, the initial intensity of
 Darby has been maintained at 35 kt, but perhaps barely so at this
 point. Additional passes through the system are ongoing and will
 hopefully provide a better idea of the consistency of the current
 trends.
 
 Darby is becoming a shallow system and is moving at 315/8 kt to the
 southwest of a lower and middle-level pressure ridge. The
 trusted dynamical objective aids were tightly clustered showing a
 northwestward track with the center of Darby passing near or over
 Oahu and Kauai later today or tonight, then continuing
 northwestward through 72 hours. The forecast track has been nudged
 north a bit due to the shift in the initial position, but keeps
 Darby moving northwestward through 72 hours.
 
 Sea surface temperatures should be decreasing along Darby's
 forecast track and vertical shear is expected to remain relatively
 strong through the next couple of days. This should result in steady
 weakening of the tropical cyclone. Thus, the forecast call for Darby
 to remain a tropical storm through today then become a tropical
 depression tonight or Monday, followed by post-tropical remnant low
 status in about 72 hours. This is close to the previous forecast but
 is a bit lower than intensity consensus which holds on to tropical
 storm intensity a bit longer.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/2100Z 20.7N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 21.7N 159.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 23.1N 160.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 24.1N 162.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 25.3N 163.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  27/1800Z 28.6N 166.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  28/1800Z 33.0N 166.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Kodama
 
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