759 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 242031
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
 200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
  
 DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING
 FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN
 EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED
 ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
 RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
 HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
 ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...STRONG
 EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS.  THE
 OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
 CLOSELY.
 
 THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7.  SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
 PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
 MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A
 FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 DECELERATE.   ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE
 POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
 OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
 SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2100Z 12.9N  99.3W    70 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W    70 KT
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W    75 KT
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W    80 KT
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W    70 KT
  96HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH