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 729 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 281426
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT WED JUL 28 2004
  
 IT APPEARS THAT DARBY HAS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
 CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-
 ESTABLISHED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
 HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING
 THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT DARBY SHOULD BEGIN REACHING COOLER WATERS
 IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE HAS A DAY OR SO TO
 INTENSIFY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS. 
 
 THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 13
 KNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAKENESS
 LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY TO CONTINUE ON
 THIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
 BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
 TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS.  DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3
 DAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERAFTER
 ...AS WEAKENING BEGINS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM
 MODEL.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 15.5N 123.4W    75 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.2N 125.2W    80 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N 127.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    70 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W    35 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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