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 774 
 WTNT45 KNHC 290240
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009
 
 DANNY REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM.  THE STRONGEST
 WINDS AND LARGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF
 THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
 FORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS ONE
 RELIABLE-LOOKING 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
 UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DANNY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FLOW BETWEEN
 AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N71W AND THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
 
 DANNY HAS CONTINUED ITS ERRATIC MOTION THIS EVENING.  JUST
 BEFORE SUNSET...THE EXPOSED CENTER APPEARED TO BE MOVING NORTH-
 NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS
 DISAPPEARED UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE
 NORTHWARD AT A FASTER PACE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN
 020/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
 UNCHANGED.  DANNY SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES...MOVING
 GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED
 BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
 NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT
 EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 48 HR. 
 THE TRACK CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN
 ABOUT 12 HR...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD IN 24-30 HR...AND NEAR OR OVER
 NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR.
 
 DANNY IS ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS
 VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
 SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM
 SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR A LITTLE
 INTENSIFICATION WHILE DANNY IS STILL TROPICAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN
 STRENGTH THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN SOME
 INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
  
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD ARRIVE IN
 DANNY AROUND 06Z TO BETTER DETERMINE THE POSITION AND INTENSITY.
 AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY
 IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
 HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS
 OFFICES IN THAT REGION.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 31.4N  74.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 34.7N  73.8W    40 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 39.5N  70.1W    40 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 44.0N  64.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     31/0000Z 47.3N  58.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.5N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     02/0000Z 53.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     03/0000Z 56.0N  14.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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