764 
 WTNT45 KNHC 271449
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009
  
 DANNY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOOKS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...
 AND THE CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  THAT BEING SAID...THE
 CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED...THE CONVECTION HAS MORE OF A LINEAR
 CHARACTER THAN THE CURVED BANDS CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL REMOVED FROM THE
 CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT PENDING THE NEXT
 AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AT 18Z...ALTHOUGH RECENT
 QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
  
 THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD FOR
 THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
 ACTUAL MOTION OF DANNY OR A SHORT-TERM TREND.  SO...THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11.  DESPITE THE PROBLEMATIC INITIAL
 MOTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
 DANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A
 COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
 AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
 WESTERLIES...PASSING NEAR OR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
 MARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE
 NAM...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE
 HATTERAS AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF ARE
 ON THE RIGHT SIDE...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO STAY OFFSHORE UNTIL
 IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE
 LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL
 POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.  WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW DANNY
 MAKING LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES...ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE
 LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE U. S.
 EASTERN SEABOARD.
  
 DANNY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER
 VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BE
 REPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HR...
 AND IF THIS VERIFIES IT WILL GIVE DANNY ITS BEST CHANCE TO
 STRENGTHEN.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY
 TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE 24-48 HR PERIOD...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
 65 KT.  THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DANNY SHOULD START LOSING TROPICAL
 CHARACTERISTICS AND INTENSITY AFTER 48 HR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
 A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.  OVERALL...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WITH THE PEAK
 INTENSITY BELOW THAT OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/1500Z 27.5N  73.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.7N  73.9W    50 KT
  24HR VT     28/1200Z 30.3N  74.5W    55 KT
  36HR VT     29/0000Z 33.2N  74.3W    60 KT
  48HR VT     29/1200Z 36.9N  72.4W    65 KT
  72HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  64.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     31/1200Z 50.0N  53.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     01/1200Z 52.5N  37.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN