025 
 WTNT41 KNHC 272043
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
 500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
  
 THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DANIELLE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE
 DURING THE DAY AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS VERY
 DISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
 CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR
 FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED DANIELLE EARLIER
 THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND MAXIMUM
 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 119 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 107 KT
 SURFACE WINDS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE ONLY 101 KT...HOWEVER.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A CONSENSUS
 T6.0/115 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.4/125 KT... AND HAVE
 BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
 REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...AND IS STILL
 INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY 24 HOURS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE
 OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD 
 OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION IS
 FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR
 EAST-NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AT HIGHER
 LATITUDES BY 96 HOURS...AND THEN TURN IT SHARPLY POLEWARD BY 120
 HOURS AS A STRONG AND DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 96
 HOURS...AND THEN A MORE POLEWARD AT DAY 5...WHICH REMAINS
 CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC.
  
 DANIELLE MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE
 HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER 29C
 SSTS. BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
 SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH
 DECREASING SSTS TO INITIATE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND 96 HOURS OR
 SO...DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES
 WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 120
 HOURS AS A VERY LARGE 60-KT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH
 ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
 INTENSITY MODELS.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST
 OF BERMUDA...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
 THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO
 BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
 BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 27.3N  60.3W   115 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 28.6N  61.0W   120 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  60.8W   110 KT
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 32.8N  59.0W   100 KT
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 35.1N  56.3W    85 KT
  72HR VT     30/1800Z 38.4N  49.7W    75 KT
  96HR VT     31/1800Z 41.8N  39.1W    65 KT
 120HR VT     01/1800Z 50.0N  28.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART