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 490 
 WTNT41 KNHC 261440
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
 1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010
 
 DANIELLE HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES IN ITS CONVECTIVE
 STRUCTURE.  THE EYE THAT WAS APPARENT FROM 05-07Z DISAPPEARED AT
 ABOUT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION. 
 SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS RE-APPEARED...EMBEDDED IN A RAGGED CENTRAL
 DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB
 AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
 BE SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/13.  IN THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A
 LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
 HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
 THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
 IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE
 NORTHEAST.  THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE
 INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR. 
 THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THIS
 PERIOD...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED.  THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE
 FIRST 48 HR...AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
 FROM 72-120 HR.  ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
 GUIDANCE CONTINUE.
 
 ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT
 DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT FOR 48 HR OR SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24-48 HR AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT IN 24 HR. 
 AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 24.4N  55.9W    90 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  57.3W    95 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  59.1W   100 KT
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.8N  60.4W   100 KT
  48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.3N  61.2W   100 KT
  72HR VT     29/1200Z 33.0N  60.5W    95 KT
  96HR VT     30/1200Z 36.5N  58.5W    85 KT
 120HR VT     31/1200Z 39.0N  55.0W    70 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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