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 812 
 WTNT41 KNHC 251441
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
 1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010
 
 DANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH
 CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
 THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO
 EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
 A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF
 WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE
 CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT
 FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE
 CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED
 ELSEWHERE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15.  DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
 SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH
 SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
 SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  AFTER
 THAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS
 BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
 EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING
 THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A
 WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
 MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST
 RIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
 ECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE
 TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE
 IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS
 FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE
 MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST.
  
 DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
 THE SHEAR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72
 HR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A
 MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...
 AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS
 CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE
 SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED
 BY WEAKENING.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/1500Z 19.6N  52.3W    75 KT
  12HR VT     26/0000Z 20.8N  53.9W    75 KT
  24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N  55.7W    80 KT
  36HR VT     27/0000Z 23.7N  57.4W    80 KT
  48HR VT     27/1200Z 24.9N  59.0W    85 KT
  72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.5N  61.5W    95 KT
  96HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  62.0W    95 KT
 120HR VT     30/1200Z 34.0N  62.0W    85 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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