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 716 
 WTNT44 KNHC 191439
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004
  
 DANIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF
 DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
 THE CYCLONE EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWS WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER
 DANIELLE SO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS
 MODEL.
 
 DANIELLE WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW
 DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
 SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS LATER TODAY. BECAUSE THE
 STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NO INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 30.0N  37.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 30.5N  37.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N  36.5W    25 KT
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 32.0N  35.5W    25 KT
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  34.5W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     22/1200Z 34.0N  32.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     23/1200Z 36.0N  28.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
  
  
 $$
 
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