287
WTNT44 KNHC 181433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
HIGHLY DISRUPTED. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. SINCE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BEYOND 72 HOURS.
DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS WEAK...THEREFORE
DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST AND...ACCELERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WEAKENING OCCURS
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND DANIELLE BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.
IT COULD THEN MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND IN
FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TUNE
WITH THE GFS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 28.5N 39.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 30.2N 39.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 31.5N 39.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 32.5N 37.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 33.5N 36.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 35.0N 33.5W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 22/1200Z 37.0N 29.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 23/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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