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 287 
 WTNT44 KNHC 181433
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING. THE LOW LEVEL
 CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
 HIGHLY DISRUPTED. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING
 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. SINCE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER
 WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
 BEYOND 72 HOURS.
  
 DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
 THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS WEAK...THEREFORE
 DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
 NORTHEAST AND...ACCELERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WEAKENING OCCURS
 FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND DANIELLE BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.
 IT COULD THEN MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND IN
 FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TUNE
 WITH THE GFS.
   
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 28.5N  39.5W    55 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 30.2N  39.3W    50 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 31.5N  39.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 32.5N  37.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 33.5N  36.0W    25 KT
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 35.0N  33.5W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     22/1200Z 37.0N  29.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     23/1200Z 44.0N  18.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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