326 
 WTNT44 KNHC 141445
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
 
 DANIELLE IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING
 BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK T NUMBERS
 ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT ACCORDINGLY.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
 TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY REASONABLY
 WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER A TONGUE OF
 SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 18N MAY LIMIT
 INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 280/12.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING A
 LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
 WOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIELLE.  THEREFORE THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHWARD COMPONENT
 OF MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 13.3N  27.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  29.1W    50 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  31.4W    55 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.6N  33.6W    60 KT
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N  35.8W    65 KT
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  39.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  42.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 25.5N  45.0W    65 KT
  
 $$