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 015 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 250839
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018
 
 Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the previous advisory
 and the overall amount of convection has also been shrinking.
 However, a small mass of convection has persisted near and over the
 low-level center, and a 0443Z ASCAT partial pass indicated that the
 wind field in the western semicircle hadn't changed since the
 previous overpasses just 12 h prior. Therefore, it is assumed that
 winds near 40 kt still exists in the unsampled eastern semicircle.
 The last UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate at 0225Z was 43 kt. Based on the
 apparent lack of any significant low-level structural change noted
 in the latest ASCAT data, along with the SATCON estimate, the
 intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 330/09 kt. Daniel is expected to
 gradually make a turn toward the northwest within the next 12 h as
 the small cyclone moves around the eastern periphery of a mid- to
 upper-level low located about 450 nmi to the west-southwest. As
 Daniel moves over progressively cooler waters, the weakening cyclone
 will become vertically more shallow and be steered westward by the
 low-level easterly tradewind flow on days 2-4. The latest model
 guidance remains good agreement with this developing track scenario.
 As a result, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
 advisory track and is close to the consensus models TVCN and HCCA.
 
 The small cyclone is currently located over sea-surface temperatures
 (SST) of about 25C, with colder water lying ahead of the system.
 Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low, steady
 weakening and gradual erosion of the central convection is expected
 throughout the forecast period due to the colder SSTs and a lack of
 instability, especially after 12-18 hours.  Daniel is forecast to
 weaken to a depression by 24 h, and degenerate into a remnant low
 pressure system shortly thereafter. However, given the current small
 and relatively weak circulation, faster weakening could occur than
 what is currently indicated. The latter scenario is supported by
 the ECMWF and UKMET models, which show dissipation by 72 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0900Z 18.8N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  25/1800Z 19.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  26/0600Z 20.2N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  26/1800Z 20.4N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/0600Z 20.5N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  28/0600Z 20.3N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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