Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 350 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 250235
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018
 
 Daniel's convective structure is slowly degrading. Recent IR imagery
 indicates that active deep convection is primarily occuring in a
 single burst, southwest of the tropical storm's center. The initial
 intensity has been held at 40 kt based on an earlier ASCAT overpass
 around 1700 UTC, but given the overall degradation of the structure
 of the cyclone since that time, it is possible this is generous. The
 tropical storm is quickly approaching the 26 deg C isotherm, so it
 is likely that Daniel has already reached its peak intensity. All of
 the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually
 spin down over the next couple of days, likely losing all deep
 convection within the next 48 h.  Essentially no change has been
 made to the NHC intensity forecast, which now calls for Daniel to
 dissipate by 96 hours.
 
 Several recent microwave overpasses suggest that the center of the
 tropical storm is slightly northeast of the previous estimate. As a
 result, the official track forecast has been nudged in that
 direction for the first 24 hours, but is very similar to the
 previous advisory beyond that time. There is otherwise no change in
 the reasoning behind the track forecast, and Daniel is still
 expected to begin a turn toward the northwest by tomorrow as it
 moves along the eastern edge of a weak mid-level low. Once Daniel
 becomes a remnant low, it will be steered westward in the low-level
 tradewind flow. The new official track forecast remains near the
 middle of the track guidance envelope, close to the consensus models
 TVCN and HCCA.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0300Z 17.9N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for DANIEL

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman