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 594 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 242036
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018
 
 Daniel continues to generate a curved band of convection near the
 center, although the cloud tops have warmed notably during the
 past several hours.  A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds
 of 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has
 been increased to that value.  The initial and forecast wind radii
 have also been revised based on the scatterometer data.
 
 The initial motion is now 340/10.  There is again no change in the
 track forecast philosophy, as the various dynamical models remain in
 good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side
 of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-18 hours, then encounter
 the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north.  This should
 result in a northwestward turn on Monday and a generally westward
 motion on Tuesday and beyond.  The only appreciable change in the
 guidance since the last advisory is that the cyclone is forecast to
 move a little faster.  Thus, the official forecast is mostly an
 update of the previous track with a slightly faster forward speed.
 
 Daniel should cross the 26C isotherm in 12 h or less, and the
 forecast track takes the system over progressively cooler water.
 Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening after
 12 h, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h,
 degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate completely
 between 96-120 h.  All of these events could occur earlier than
 currently forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/2100Z 16.9N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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