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 723 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 241441
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018
 
 The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep
 convection near the center during the past several hours, with the
 low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent
 microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small
 inner core.  Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates
 of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel.
 
 The initial motion is now 350/9.  There is no change in the track
 forecast philosophy.  The various dynamical models remain in good
 agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a
 mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to
 move over cooler water and weaken.  The resulting more shallow
 cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
 ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
 by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
 in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is
 again an update of the previous track.
 
 The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface
 temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause
 weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment.
 Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the
 previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening,
 followed by steady weakening over the cooler water.  The latest
 dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating
 faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that
 trend by showing dissipation after 96 h.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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