Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 629 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018
 
 Although convective banding features have become less distinct since
 the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold
 cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of
 the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is
 restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly
 vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt
 based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
 TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 The depression has continued to move northward and the motion
 estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
 packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes
 were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement
 that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a
 mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the
 system moving over cooler water and weakening.  The more shallow
 cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
 ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
 by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
 in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast
 track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
 close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.
 
 The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear
 ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the
 next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs
 in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more
 stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only
 modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady
 weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant
 low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday.
 However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity
 with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the
 HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for DANIEL

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman