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 870 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018
 
 Over the past several hours, the low pressure system located around
 115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation.  The
 convective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping
 around the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band
 to the southeast and south.  The system has therefore been
 designated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity
 of 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.
 
 Although the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant
 suggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are
 present, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight
 slight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours.  The depression is
 forecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a
 far more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose
 all deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through
 the middle of next week.  The NHC forecast conservatively shows the
 system as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a
 remnant low sooner than that.  The official intensity forecast is
 very similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance
 is in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over
 the next day or two.
 
 The depression has been moving generally northward and the initial
 motion estimate is 355/8 kt.  The dynamical models are in good
 agreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving
 northward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level
 cut-off low to its west.  After that time, the weakening system
 should become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow,
 causing it to turn toward the around day 4.  The official forecast
 lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and
 closely follows the track consensus TVCN.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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