935 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 110850
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
  
 DANIEL IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
 ABOUT 14 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
 PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED TO ITS NORTH
 AND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. ON
 THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL
 PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS MORNING.
 
 ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS...WHICH IS SHEARED TO
 THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF DANIEL. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
 T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UW-CIMSS ADT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.6/37 KT. DANIEL SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS
 IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF STRONGER
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DANIEL WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING
 THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
 MODELS...WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.
  
 THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
 HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS
 WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
 HAWAII.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z 15.4N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  12/1800Z 15.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0600Z 14.8N 157.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART