807 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 081433
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
  
 THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE CENTRAL
 CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 90 KT...AND
 THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED.  SINCE DANIEL WILL BE
 TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MORE STABLE
 ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
 THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...275/12. 
 THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
 WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/1500Z 15.1N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 15.3N 125.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 15.6N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 15.9N 131.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 16.0N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  13/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH