682 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 062036
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
  
 THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS...WITH A CDO PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER BUT NO SIGNS OF AN
 EYE FORMING YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK FIXES FROM TAFB
 AND SAB. WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...DANIEL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS
 LEFT BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE
 STATUS IS STILL SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS THE
 SUPPORT OF MORE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. RAPID
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE LGEM THEREAFTER. 
 
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTS THAT
 THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS LOCATED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND HAS
 BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AT AROUND 10 KT.
 A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
 WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
 DANIEL MOVES SOUTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC
 TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR THE MORE
 SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
 RESULTS IN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF 15 TO 20 NM THROUGH THE PERIOD
 COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/2100Z 14.4N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 14.6N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 14.8N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  08/0600Z 15.0N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  10/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  11/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN