500 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 231456
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
  
 DANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
 IMAGERY. DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS....CLOUDS TOPS
 HAVE COOLED ONCE AGAIN AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. A
 BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN 
 AVERAGE OF 115 KT...WHILE UW-CIMSS THREE-HOURLY AVERAGE RAW ADT
 ESTIMATES ARE T6.3 ABOUT 122 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 REMAINS 115 KT. 
     
 EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN FORECAST TO SOON SLOW DOWN...
 DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES 
 TO BE STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
 NORTH...WHICH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO WEAKEN. 
 UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS EXIST
 AS A RESULT OF A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS.
 BOTH THE GFDL AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT
 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. 
 THE GFS SLOWS THE SPEED OF DANIEL TO 5 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN 2 KT
 OR LESS BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TURNS DANIEL
 NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF 140W.  IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
 KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
 WHICH KEEPS DANIEL ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  SINCE IT
 DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL
 SOLUTIONS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT
 SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE UKMET BUT IS CLOSE
 TO THE NOGAPS AND GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
 AND THEN MOVE OVER ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
 FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 96
 HOURS AND THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS A
 RESULT...THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS DANIEL SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 
 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL
 APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR SINCE BOTH
 IT AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DANIEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 INTO A LIGHT WIND REGIME THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BETWEEN SEVERAL
 SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LOWER SHEAR
 CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SSTS NEAR 25C MAY RESULT IN DANIEL NOT
 WEAKENING AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 AND BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 14.9N 135.7W   115 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.4N 137.3W   105 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W    95 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.3N 140.4W    85 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.8N 141.8W    75 KT
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.8N 144.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART