048 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 190835
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006
  
 AN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT DANIEL WAS DEVELOPING A
 BANDING EYE FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A WARM
 SPOT...INDICATING POSSIBLE PIN HOLE EYE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CORE
 CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES
 AND THE ODT IS 85 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.  
 THE GFDL AND A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER
 ANTICYCLONE OVER DANIEL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER
 HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE'S TRACK CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS CHANGE
 IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW
 WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BIT SLOWER. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
 SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIEL TO TRACK
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0900Z 11.8N 119.0W    80 KT
  12HR VT     19/1800Z 11.8N 120.3W    90 KT
  24HR VT     20/0600Z 12.1N 121.9W   100 KT
  36HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 123.6W   100 KT
  48HR VT     21/0600Z 12.9N 125.5W   100 KT
  72HR VT     22/0600Z 13.6N 129.3W    90 KT
  96HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    80 KT
 120HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W    70 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH