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 825 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 182026
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006
  
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY
 STRENGTHEN AND A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING.
 ACCORDINGLY...DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BASED ON
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A 70 KT
 ESTIMATE FROM FROM UW CIMSS ADT. 
  
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY TO THE
 NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND DANIEL IS LOCATED OVER
 WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ALL OF THESE POSITIVE FACTORS POINT
 TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. 
 SINCE THE LATER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE TAKING DANIEL TO
 MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
 SUPER ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS
 AND IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 SHOULD DANIEL GO ON AND FORM AN EYE LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD
 STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE
 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.
  
 DANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE FIRST
 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.  THEREAFTER...THE OVERALL
 FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL
 BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY
 WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL
 WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 2 FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. ONLY THE UKMET KEEPS THE
 CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 11.9N 117.6W    65 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W    75 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W    85 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W    95 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W   100 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W   100 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W    85 KT
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W    70 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
  
 
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