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 270 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 170828
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
 200 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND LACKS A
 CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. 
 THERE ARE BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT...BUT THESE
 ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
 TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR
 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED
 SIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
 ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
 WARM...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.  THE
 OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE...ONCE THE
 SYSTEM ACQUIRES AN INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE
 INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DECREASE IN STRENGTH
 SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NEAR/OVER COOLER WATERS...
 PARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SOMEWHAT NORTH OF MY PROJECTED TRACK. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
 AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
 THE LATTER MODEL AT DAYS 3-5.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 12 KT.  SOME
 SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND THE GLOBAL
 MODELS...IN THE VICINITY OF 115-120W.  OTHERWISE A CONTINUED
 WESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE FORTHCOMING.  LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL
 MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON 5-E.  THE U.K.
 MODEL ELONGATES THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
 IS UNABLE TO TRACK A DISTINCT CENTER WHILE THE NOGAPS SPLITS THE
 SYSTEM IN TWO.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS
 MAINTAIN A COHERENT STRUCTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
 BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND DEEP/MEDIUM BAM
 PREDICTIONS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0900Z 12.4N 111.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 112.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 114.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N 116.4W    55 KT
  48HR VT     19/0600Z 12.9N 118.2W    65 KT
  72HR VT     20/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W    80 KT
 120HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N 126.5W    75 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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