537
WTPA41 PHFO 250232
TCDCP1
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
500 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006
THE 2224 UTC AMSR INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IN
SPITE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED CDO SITUATION. DANIEL/S INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED ON A CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM PHFO.
AODT HAS A CI OF 4.5 WHILE SAB AND ADT DERIVED A 3.5 VALUE.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DANIEL IS SUFFERING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY
SHEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE CB MASS PUSHED FAR WEST OF THE LLCC. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE UNIFORMLY WARMED AS WELL...JUSTIFYING THE REDUCED INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE 64 KT WIND RADIUS WAS REDUCED TO 10 NM...WHILE THE 12
FEET SEAS RADIUS AT TAU THREE WAS REDUCED FURTHER FROM THE 2100 UTC
RADIUS TO MATCH THE GALE RADIUS.
DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THIS PROMPTED A
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE
FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE 2100
TRACK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE RIGHT A BIT...NOW FALLING SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK NOW REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
CONSENSUS AND GFN GUIDANCE...THE NOGAPS VERSION OF GFDL...BETWEEN
72 AND 120 HOURS. FORECAST MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO CORRESPOND TO INITIAL MOTION AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NICELY PACKED...WITH
GFDL...BAMD AND LBAR REPRESENTING THE RIGHT OUTLIERS. VANILLA NOGAPS
AND GFS REPRESENT THE LEFT OUTLIERS.
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE WARMER WATER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING LEE OF THE ISLANDS...DANIEL
MAY PASS OVER WATER AS WARM AS 27 OR 28 DEGREES C AT 120 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON UW-CIMMS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND WRF
SHOWS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. WHILE GFS NO LONGER
WANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS...IT DOES
MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ECHOES THIS GRADUAL
WEAKENING...WITH DANIEL STILL AT 50 KT AT 120 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST WILL BRING DANIEL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.1N 142.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.1N 143.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.4N 145.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.8N 146.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.3N 148.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.3N 152.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.6N 156.3W 50 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 21.3N 160.8W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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