461
WTPA41 PHFO 242034
TCDCP1
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
1100 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006
THE 1603 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND 1719 UTC SSMIS DATA
GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION IN SPITE OF CDO SITUATION.
DANIEL INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON WIDE CONSENSUS OF
CI NUMBERS OF 4.5...77 KNOTS...FROM CPHC...AFWA...CIMMS ADT AND
AODT. TAU THREE 12-FEET SEAS RADIUS WAS CONSTRAINED TO 120 NM WITHIN
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS BASED ON QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS DISTANCE MEASUREMENTS.
DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE 1500 UTC TRACK...FAVORING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN LAST TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO
UKMET THROUGH 72 HOURS BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN NICELY
PACKED...WITH GFS AND BAMS REPRESENTING THE LEFT AND RIGHT
OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY.
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE WARMER WATER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING LEE OF THE ISLANDS...DANIEL
MAY PASS OVER WATER AS WARM AS 27 OR 28 DEGREES C AT 120 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON UW-CIMMS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND WRF
SHOWS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. GFS WANTS TO
RE-INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS...WHILE ALL OTHER
MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY TREND...KEEPING DANIEL AT 50 KT AT 120 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST WILL BRING DANIEL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 16.3N 141.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 143.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.0N 144.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 146.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.8N 148.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 152.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 19.9N 156.6W 50 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 161.3W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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