Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 543 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 070251
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
  
 A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST
 DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND
 SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS
 SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
 ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE
 DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION
 REFORMS SOON.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND
 IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT.
  
 DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-
 SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS
 REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF
 HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING
 EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY
 LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for DALILA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman