093 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 051448
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN
 SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT...
 T2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB...
 RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED
 TROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
 DEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW
 ENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY.
 HOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING
 WEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM
 THE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT.
 REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT
 APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO
 MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE
 OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI
 TO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO
 DALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN
 GREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA
 WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
 TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
 CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.
  
 EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
 DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
 IS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH
 ERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT
 SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
 TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART