482 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 022032
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013
  
 A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES...RECEIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF
 THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF
 DALILA BECAME SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER DEFINED DURING THE MORNING
 HOURS. IN PARTICULAR...1335 UTC WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THAT
 THAT AN EYE HAD DEVELOPED.  THAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
 CENTER OF DALILA WAS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.  A
 RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
 OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED
 OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE UPWARD
 SHIFT IN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALTHOUGH IT
 NOW LIES ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE.  DALILA IS STILL
 FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A
 DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER WATERS.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO LOCATE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER
 UNCERTAIN.  IN THE SHORT RANGE...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
 NORTH OF DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPART A TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS A VERY
 LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
 HAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A
 GENERALLY WESTWARD-MOVING STRONG CYCLONE...WHILE THE ECMWF
 FORECASTS A SOUTHWARD-MOVING WEAK LOW.  GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF
 DALILA...MORE CREDENCE IS BEING GIVEN TO THE FORMER SCENARIO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/2100Z 18.4N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 18.3N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 18.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 17.7N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 17.5N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 18.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  07/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY