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 428 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 010834
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
 200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
 PAST FEW FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS
 LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED
 BANDING FEATURES. A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
 SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS. DALILA STILL
 HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
 BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
 NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM MODELS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
 DALILA...AND IN FACT...THE LATEST HWRF ONLY INCREASES THE WIND
 SLIGHTLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS
 FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS
 LIKELY TO OCCUR.  
 
 DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SOON FORCE DALILA TO TAKE A
 MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
 SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT SINCE
 SOME MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF DALILA...AND
 SUGGEST THAT DALILA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES...BEYOND 3 DAYS...THAT DALILA INSTEAD
 WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 
 IF THE TREND TOWARD THE WEST CONTINUES AND DALILA DOES NOT INTENSIFY
 MUCH MORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO WILL LIKELY NO
 LONGER BE REQUIRED.  
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/0900Z 17.2N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 18.8N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 18.9N 108.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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