001 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 301431
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
 BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.   THE CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
 TAFB AND SAB.  DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUT
 THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
 MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
 OR NEAR 340/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
 INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE.
 
 GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
 SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH