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 185 
 WTNT44 KNHC 281445
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
 1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014
 
 The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more
 symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is
 embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has
 become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from
 both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial
 intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected
 today while the hurricane remains over warm water.  The cyclone will
 begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete
 extratropical transition on Friday.  The global models indicate that
 the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north
 Atlantic during the next few days.  The low is forecast to merge
 with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in
 3 to 4 days.
 
 Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt.  The cyclone
 should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude
 westerlies during the next day or so.  The updated NHC track is
 close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance
 envelope.  The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the
 extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction
 Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/1500Z 36.9N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 39.7N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 43.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 48.0N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  30/1200Z 51.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  31/1200Z 61.1N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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