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 196 
 WTNT44 KNHC 280832
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014
 
 Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical
 cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric
 area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and
 Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of
 65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as
 indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it
 will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts
 with a frontal zone.  Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius
 waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It
 should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of
 hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.
 
 The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
 and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and
 accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from
 the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in
 good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS
 ensemble mean.
 
 The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated
 with the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0900Z 35.6N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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